Liver Disease in Australia: 2026 Statistics and Trends | Elastography Australia

Liver disease is one of Australia's least-discussed public health challenges. It ranked as the ninth leading cause of fatal burden in Australia in 2023. It is largely preventable — and largely undetected.

Understanding the scale of the problem helps clinicians and clinic managers understand why liver elastography demand is growing, and why investment in non-invasive assessment makes both clinical and commercial sense.

MAFLD: The Dominant Condition

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) — previously called NAFLD — is now the most common cause of chronic liver disease in Australia.

Data from the AusDiab study found that 37% of a large Australian adult cohort met diagnostic criteria for MAFLD. Regional Victoria data has found MAFLD prevalence approaching 47% in some community cohorts. Extrapolated to the adult population, Australia almost certainly has well over 5 million adults with MAFLD — though most are undiagnosed.

This is not a rare specialist condition. It's presenting in every GP waiting room in Australia.

The Fibrosis Burden Within MAFLD

Not all MAFLD is equal. The critical clinical question is not whether a patient has fatty liver — it's whether they have fibrosis, and how advanced it is. This is where non-invasive testing becomes essential.

Population studies suggest that approximately 5–10% of those with MAFLD will develop significant fibrosis (F2 or above). Extrapolated to 5+ million Australians with MAFLD, that implies at least 250,000–500,000 Australians with significant liver fibrosis — the majority unidentified.

Advanced fibrosis (F3–F4) carries dramatically elevated risk of liver-related mortality, liver cancer, and decompensation. Identifying these patients before they reach cirrhosis is the entire rationale for elastography-based screening.

Liver Cancer: Rising Steadily

Liver cancer in Australia is one of the few cancer types where incidence and mortality are both rising. Key figures from Cancer Australia (2025 estimates):

• An estimated 3,175 new liver cancer diagnoses in 2025 (up from 2,574 in 2021).

• An estimated 2,632 liver cancer deaths in 2025.

• Liver cancer is projected to be the sixth most common cause of cancer death in Australia in 2025.

• The age-standardised incidence rate has increased from 2.2 per 100,000 in 1982 to approximately 12 per 100,000 in 2025.

MAFLD is now the most rapidly increasing cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) globally. As the MAFLD wave matures — with more patients progressing to cirrhosis — the liver cancer burden will continue to grow unless early fibrosis is detected and managed.

Hepatitis B: A Continuing Challenge

Australia has a significant hepatitis B burden, particularly in communities with higher rates of migration from endemic regions. An estimated 220,000+ Australians are living with chronic hepatitis B, and a substantial proportion are inadequately monitored.

The 2024 WHO hepatitis B guidelines updated the elastography thresholds for treatment decisions — specifically, liver stiffness >7 kPa now supports treatment for significant fibrosis (≥F2). This gives a clearer clinical role for elastography in hepatitis B management beyond MAFLD.

The Screening Gap

Despite the scale of the problem, systematic liver fibrosis screening remains fragmented in Australian primary care. The primary barriers are:

• FIB-4 is underused — many GPs are not yet routinely calculating it from standard LFT results.

• Referral delays — patients with indeterminate FIB-4 often wait months for specialist-ordered elastography.

• Device access — particularly in regional and rural Australia, elastography is not readily available.

• Awareness — a 2025 Medical Journal of Australia commentary noted that MAFLD is 'often undetected and frequently asymptomatic,' with many patients diagnosed incidentally during workup for other conditions.

These gaps represent both a clinical problem and a market opportunity. Practices that offer in-house elastography remove the referral barrier and deliver results at the point of care.